Political Capital?

Everyone on the left-hand side of the political blogosphere is crowing these days. They have a lot to crow about too: the election of President Obama, his inauguration, the strong control of both houses of Congress, the ramrodding passage of the stimulus bill through to the President’s signature.

They don’t have quite as much to be shouting about as they claim though. They all believe that they have a basic realignment of the American electorate with their victory last September. They continue to shout based on President Obama’s job approval ratings in the polls. That, along with the President’s insistence that “he won”, seem (to them) to be a strong reason as to why anyone opposed to them should have the common courtesy to shut up, if not simply discorporate out of shame.

It really isn’t that simple though. Check the chart. It shows President George W. Bush’s approval ratings through his terms in office. At roughly the same time in his tenure, W., too, had a high approval rating. Look where it got him!

Job approval ratings this far from an election really don’t have much to do with the chances in the next election – unless the situation doesn’t change at all. The one thing we can be sure of in all of this – it will change.